Nandi 2027 Poll: Kosgey Leads as Voters Signal Desire for Change Across Key Races
A new countywide opinion poll has revealed a rapidly evolving political landscape in Nandi County ahead of the 2027 General Election, with tight races emerging and a strong anti-incumbency wave cutting across multiple elective seats.
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| Allan Kosgey, Sen. Cherargey and Clara Melly (Photo courtesy) |
The online survey, which sampled 10,217 respondents from across Nandi County and the diaspora, offers one of the clearest early snapshots of voter sentiment and shifting political dynamics.
Kosgey, Muge Dominate Gubernatorial Race
The race for the Nandi gubernatorial seat is shaping into a high-stakes two-horse contest between lawyer Allan Kosgey and current Woman Representative Cynthia Muge.
Kosgey leads with 43.7 percent of the vote, closely followed by Muge at 36.4 percent. The narrow margin underscores a highly competitive race that remains far from decided.
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| A summary of the polls conducted by Maskani (illustration courtesy) |
Kosgey’s support appears to stem from his countywide reach and a development focused agenda prioritizing roads and infrastructure. Meanwhile, Muge continues to gain traction through grassroots mobilization and her emphasis on agriculture, education, and community-driven initiatives.
READ ALSO: Allan Kosgey Rallies Nandi Residents to Register as IEBC Exercise Nears Deadline
Other candidates, including Tinderet MP Julius Melly (8.2 percent), trail the frontrunners but could still influence the outcome through strategic alliances as the contest tightens.
Senate Race: Cherargey Leads Amid Growing Challenge
In the senatorial race, incumbent Samson Cherargey holds the lead with 5,117 votes, largely driven by his visibility and established political base.
However, challenger Alexander Kosgey is gaining ground with 2,328 votes, positioning himself as a reform-oriented alternative.
Woman Representative Contest Too Close to Call
The Woman Representative race remains one of the most competitive contests in the county.
Clara Melly leads with 3,369 votes, narrowly edging Ruth Bungei, who has garnered 3,185 votes. The slim margin highlights a fluid race where voter persuasion and coalition building are likely to be decisive factors.
Constituency Battles Signal Political Shake-Up
Across Nandi’s constituencies, the poll points to intense competition and growing dissatisfaction with incumbents:
- Mosop: David Tarus leads with 38.2%, signaling a strong anti-incumbent wave against Abraham Kirwa.
- Emgwen: Zipporah Kering dominates with 59.5%, leaving incumbent Josses Lelmengit trailing significantly.
- Chesumei: Julius Bett leads a tight race, with incumbent Paul Biego falling behind challengers.
- Aldai: Governor Stephen Sang emerges as a strong contender for the MP seat with 44.5%, ahead of incumbent Marianne Kitany.
- Nandi Hills: A closely fought contest between Felix Tanui (41.7%) and Elijah Sawe (38.5%) is shaping up.
- Tinderet: The race remains wide open following Julius Melly’s gubernatorial bid, with multiple candidates competing closely.
Majority of Voters Reject Sitting MCAs
One of the most striking findings from the poll is widespread dissatisfaction with grassroots leadership.
A majority of respondents (57.8 percent) indicated they would not re-elect their current Member of County Assembly (MCA), compared to 42.2 percent who expressed support for incumbents. This signals a strong appetite for political change at the local level.
Development Priorities: Roads, Health and Water
On development priorities, voters identified roads and infrastructure (44.9 percent) as the most urgent concern, followed by health and water services at 25.9 percent.
The findings suggest that voters are increasingly prioritizing service delivery, reliability, and tangible development outcomes over political rhetoric.
Gender Gap in Participation
The poll also revealed a notable gender imbalance among respondents, with 63.9 percent male and 36.1 percent female participation.
This disparity may influence interpretation of the results, particularly in races where gender dynamics are a key factor.
Conclusion
With just over a year to the 2027 General Election, the latest poll paints a picture of a politically energized Nandi County defined by tight contests, shifting alliances, and a growing demand for change.
If current trends persist, the outcome of the polls will likely be determined not just by popularity, but by strategy, voter turnout, and the ability of candidates to convert support into actual votes.